2023 College Football Playoff Rankings - CHAOS

     CHAOS! We finally have a year full of pure CHAOS for the College Football Playoff Selection Committee. With three undefeated Conference Champions, two 1-loss Conference Champions, and two very deserving 1-loss teams who did not win their conference (honorable mention to Oregon because I believe they are in the mix for best teams, but they needed a win Friday night), you have the makings of a pure, unsolicited CHAOS for the CFB Playoffs. This post will be short and sweet, but I break down what I think will happen, what should happen and my overall top 4 teams. Here we go!

What do I think will happen?

    With so many deserving teams, the CFP Selection Committee has to determine the best four teams. The difference between these words has been difficult to separate over the past few years, but is more important than ever here in 2023. Next year, the problem solves itself. The 12-team playoff opens up and losing in your conference championship or not even playing in it has no matter. But here's what I think happens this year. First and foremost, Michigan and Washington are in. The question is who will be #1? Conventional wisdom says Michigan, but Washington has more ranked wins than the Wolverines, and their conference championship game was actually a challenge. Does that reward the Huskies with the #1 overall seed? This is something to consider because of the potential matchups. The real question comes with Florida State. Are they deserving? Yes, 13-0 with a conference championship has been a consistent standard for the committee to put a team in to the playoffs. However, without Jordan Travis at QB, are they one of the 4 best? This is the catch. They have a championship-caliber defense, but so does Iowa (arguably even my Huskers at times). Texas and Alabama both have the firepower on offense to match their defenses. Yes, Tate Rodemaker would be back for the semifinal/bowl game, but is that enough? He's not Jordan Travis and they struggled against an okay but not great Florida team in his lone start. The Playoff Committee would be head hunted by a mob if they leave out the SEC and you can't put them in with out putting in Texas because of the head-to-head win. Ohio State and Georgia are great teams, but don't have enough to be considered this scenario.

What do I think will happen? They bump out Florida State because of their lack of offense in the last couple games and the committee does not believe they are one of the BEST teams without Jordan Travis. They break their own precedent and put in Texas and Alabama.

1. Michigan

2. Washington

3. Texas

4. Alabama

What should happen?

    The deserving and best argument again make this very difficult. Florida State could easily be overlooked because of their QB injuries, but they have had a tremendous season and I've been saying from the onset of the season, they are one of the best four teams. They had a more impressive win against LSU than Alabama did and won a variety of close games both on the road and at home, just like Washington. Michigan looked fairly dominant all season, but had lackluster competition apart from Ohio State and Penn State. Texas' win over Alabama on the road in Tuscaloosa cannot and should not be overlooked. However, Alabama and Texas are playing some of the best football in the country right now. Georgia and Ohio State are both quality teams and could easily be favored in a game against Florida State, Texas or Washington, maybe even Michigan (at least for UGA).

What should happen?

1. Washington

2. Michigan

3. Florida State

4. Texas

Who are my four best teams?

1. Washington

2. Michigan

3. Texas

4. Alabama

I HATE leaving Florida State out, but without Jordan Travis, they are not one of the four best. They are more than deserving of a spot, but I think this is the best slate of 4 teams to get great games in all the semifinals and the finals. Thanks for reading my thoughts on the College Football Playoff Rankings. Anxious to see what happens today!

#CFBKnowItAll

Alex Fernando

Conference Championship Predictions

     Happy Championship Week! Somehow, some way, another college football regular season has come to a close as we look to crown the various conference champions, some for the final time as conference realignment will make this week look very different next year. There's a lot to break down ahead of the big games this weekend, most of which could cause some big shake ups in the final College Football Playoff Rankings. However, before we get to this week's games, I'll give my thoughts on the disappointing Husker game that took place just a week ago as the Hawkeyes won yet again on a walk-off field goal. I'll do a full season recap once we get out of bowl season, but some other teams still have football to play!

    The Huskers and the Hawkeyes battled on a chilly Black Friday morning, and despite numerous chances for the Huskers to walk away with a victory, they once again gave the game up to the Hawkeyes in the final moments. Neither team honestly looked like they wanted to win the game as questionable play calls and poorly timed turnovers made up a majority of the fourth quarter. I've got my GOOD, EXPECTED and BAD categories broken down below.

GOOD - Phalen Sanford & the Blackshirts. Overall, the defense played very well apart from that one gashing run with just seconds left. Unfortunately a missed tackle led to the Hawkeyes getting into field goal range. Apart from that though, the defense was fantastic. They had 3 tackles for loss, a sack and 7 passes deflected while forcing 7 Iowa punts and blocking 2 field goals. Giving up just 13 points in this one and an average of 18.3 on the season, you should be winning a majority of your games. I also want to give a specific shoutout to Husker DB Phalen Sanford. The senior former walk-on who started his career at Hastings College was sensational throughout the game and a lot of his impact won't show up in the stat sheet. In addition to his constant efforts on special teams throughout the year, Sanford recorded 9 total tackles against the Hawkeyes and made some big time stops at the line of scrimmage. Some of his best plays came when Iowa tried to stretch the run game out to the edge and he did a wonderful job of sealing them back inside by beating the block of the pulling lineman and letting the running back fall back into the arms of his Blackshirt teammates chasing him down. A true overlooked hero on the defense and special teams this year, but to me his contributions did not go unnoticed!

EXPECTED - Solid game from Chubba Purdy and the field position battle. Making his second start of the season, Purdy had played about how I would expect. There were some very unfortunate and frustrating turnovers, but the offense looked much smoother under his control. Most of his passes were accurate and in a good place of his receivers to make a play. More importantly, when he didn't have anyone open and was under pressure, he made the smart decision multiple times to throw the ball out of bounds and move onto the next play. This is not something we have seen from the other QBs in the room and although the offense didn't perform up to a desired standard, I have a hard time believing their wouldn't be more turnovers with someone else under center. The other expected aspect of this game was the importance of field position. With two horrible offensive attacks against two of the best defenses in the country, penalties, turnovers and special teams were going to truly decide the outcome and playing smart with field position needed to be a priority.

BAD - Timeouts and not using Emmett Johnson. Looking big picture, this category could start being called just BAD Coaching decisions as Matt Rhule has a lot of blame to shoulder for these final three games. One of the few bright spots in the Husker offense has been Emmett Johnson. I'm sure the ware and tear of a long season has to factor into some of this, but after a career high of 17 carries against Maryland, Wisconsin was followed up with 13 and then just 11 against Iowa. I understand that the Hawkeye defense is not an easy one to move on, but giving your best weapons the ball is how you win football games. I think he could've done some more damage if given more than 11 carries. The bigger issue lies with the use of timeouts throughout not only this game, but the entirety of the season. I'll have to go back and find some stats, but I'd argue that close to every game this season had the Huskers taking an unnecessary timeout on offense to prevent a delay of game penalty. Also, another (very crucial 2nd half timeout) was used for the same reason after Nebraska lined up for what looked to be the attempt of a 60 yard field goal into the wind. Tristian Alvano didn't even run out onto the field for this because he was as confused as the fans on why this would even be a thing. Matt Rhule said it was going to potentially be a fake 60 yard field goal and somehow everyone has just been okay with that answer. No one should ever believe a fake 60 yard field goal into the wind will be a thing, and wasting a timeout just to punt and pin the opponent deep inside the 10 is idiotic when you know it's going to be a close game late in the 4th and saving your timeouts might be useful. I really hope to see better management of that next year.

    Overall the Husker season went exactly as I thought: 4-5 wins and I accurately predicted them at the beginning of the year apart from flipping Illinois and Iowa. It was certainly a frustrating season at times, especially the last month, knowing how simple it would be for the Huskers to win some of those games, only to lose them at the end. We'll see how the offseason goes and what year two brings. Luckily, Defensive Coordinator Tony White will be staying put for now as the Huskers restructured his contract this week. Smart decision!

Rivalry Week Record: 21 - 6

Overall Record: 186 - 61

Conference Championship Predictions:

New Mexico State vs. #24 Liberty (Conference USA Championship)

    The Aggies are looking to pull another upset as Liberty is heavily favored in this game, coming in at 12-0. Both teams have dynamic offenses, but New Mexico State's offensive production all relies on star QB Diego Pavia. The Junior has nearly 2,800 passing yards with 23 TDs and just 8 picks, while also leading the team in rushing with 806 yards and 5 TDs. Liberty's offense has a few more weapons with the Sophomore/Junior/Junior trio of Kaidon Salter at QB (2,431 passing yards with 29 TDs and 5 picks), Quinton Cooley at RB (1,251 rushing yards with 13 TDs) and CJ Daniels at WR (831 yards with 9 TDs). This one could be a shoot out, but I like the Flames to take it home. Liberty wins 40-28.

#5 Oregon vs. #3 Washington (PAC-12 Championship) ($)

    The final chapter of the PAC-12 is written tonight as the Oregon Ducks and Washington Huskies rematch for the final crown and a likely spot in the College Football Playoffs. The Ducks fell to the Huskies by 3 on the road in mid-October, but are favored by 9.5 in the rematch. They've been playing arguably the best football in the nation since that loss. We've got two presumed Heisman finalists battling in this game with Bo Nix and Michael Penix Jr. The stats speak for themselves with both of these players, but the leadership on the field and helping will these teams to every victory is really what matters. Both offenses are going to bring their weapons, which means we need to look at the defensive side of the ball to see who will win. In the first matchup, Oregon actually won most every big stat on defense that you need, but being stopped 0/3 on 4th down was a big difference maker. Since that loss though, the ducks have racked up 13 sacks, and will look to create more pressure on Michael Penix Jr. and slow down the dynamic passing attack. This should be another fantastic matchup and I honestly wouldn't be upset with both teams going into the playoffs. That only has a chance if Oregon wins though, and my number one rule in College Football is that you NEVER want to play a team twice in one season. The Ducks win the final PAC 12 Championship with a phenomenal game over the Huskies 34-24.

#18 Oklahoma State vs. #7 Texas (Big XII Championship)

    Somehow, the Pokes found their way into the Big XII Championship. It took a double-digit comeback and overtime against BYU to make it happen, but now they square off against the Texas Longhorns who are looking to make a major Playoff argument with a big win. They will need to slowdown star RB Ollie Gordon III, and that's no easy task. Gordon averages 6.4 yards per carry and has 20 TDs on the ground this season. Texas ranks 5th in rush defense, and while they've been tested a few times this season, they continue to come out on top and have put up a few dominant performances. There's the added drama of the Longhorn carcass that was found outside of an Oklahoma State Fraternity this morning, an investigation is still going. I've been waiting for Texas to stumble again all year long, but they seem to be very poised this year. Oklahoma State has been very volatile and it's tough to trust them this season. I hate wanting Texas to win, but it gives the Playoff Committee more of a challenge, and that sparks chaos. Hook 'Em as Texas walks out of the Big XII as a Champion with a 33-21 victory.

Miami (OH) vs. Toledo (MAC Championship)

    The Rockets are looking to defend their 2022 Title as they take on the Redhawks of Miami (OH). They won by 4 in the first meeting of the season, on the road with a 21-17 victory. This game gives me some fits because I want to follow my rule of never wanting to play a team twice in the same year, but I also think the experience of this game plays a big factor in the matchup. The Rockets have a dynamic ground game behind RB Peny Boone, and with his 7.4 yard per carry average, they gash opposing defenses. Miami (OH) will need to slow him down again as he rushed for just 73 against them the first time. Asking to do that twice in a year is tough, just like beating the same team is. You could go either direction on this game, but I'll take the Rockets and test my rule. Toledo wins the MAC 26-21.

Boise State vs. UNLV (Mountain West Championship)

    The Broncos and the Rebels meet after a very crowded 3-way tie atop the Mountain West. Boise State struggled early in the season, but found some rhythm with key wins against San Jose State and Wyoming. They're led by Sophomore RB Ashton Jeanty, who has 1,109 yards with 13 TDs on the ground this season. UNLV has been a dominant force up until the last few weeks, winning a close one against Air Force and falling to San Jose State in the final regular season game. Junior WR Ricky White is their best player with 1,300 yards and 7 TDs. Boise State ranks 117th in pass defense in the nation, so he should have a big day and help UNLV win the Mountain West crown. Rebels 38, Broncos 30.

#1 Georgia vs. #8 Alabama (SEC Championship)

    Can the Tide do the most chaotic thing possible and upset Georgia in front of the College Football Playoff Committee? This SEC Championship carries a tremendous amount of weight as Bama looks to get back into the Playoffs after escaping Auburn with a sensational 30+ 4th and Goal conversion last weekend. The Bulldogs had a couple headaches of their own with the Ramblin' Wreck, but managed an 8 point win to finish off another perfect season. They are looking for their 30th straight win, but there's Nick Saban standing in the way. They've done it before, but Jalen Milroe and the Bama offense are still hot. My biggest factor to watch is the pressure on Georgia QB Carson Beck. He hasn't been under much pressure this season, but that isn't likely to be the case with Alabama. I think they're going to dial up a lot of pressure on the young QB and force him into mistakes. The Playoff Committee would have a very difficult decision to make if Bama wins, and I have a hard time not picking them in this game. I think Nick Saban is ready for some revenge and they beat Georgia 39-37. Roll Tide!

SMU vs. #22 Tulane (American Conference Championship) ($)

    The Mustangs and the Green Wave meet in what could be the highest scoring game of the weekend. SMU ranks 4th in the nation, averaging over 41 points per game. The Green Wave rank 17th in scoring defense, but I think it could be all offense in this one. The QB battle will be fun to watch as Preston Stone and Michael Pratt both have tremendous receivers to throw to. Tulane has been the team to beat the last couple years in this conference, and are looking for another New Year's Six Bowl, but I think this one goes to the Ponies. Too much offense and SMU wins this 45-38.

Appalachian State vs. Troy (Sun Belt Conference Championship)

    Not a whole lot to look at here other than the QBs, but watch out for the sneaky App State defense. They made some big plays in the upset, overtime win against James Madison and will cause havoc in the backfield. Troy brings a very balanced attack to the game though as Junior RB Kimani Vidal has been grinding all season for nearly 1,400 yards and 9 TDs. Look to him in the red zone and look for Troy to pull away late with the ground game. Trojans win 28-20.

#2 Michigan vs. #16 Iowa (BIG 10 Championship)

    The Hawkeyes will look to keep this one close as their offense isn't likely to do much against the Wolverine defense. They're a disciplined team though, and the lack of penalties and dumb plays always keeps them in the game. JJ McCarthy and Blake Corum should be ready to roll in this one, and I think Harbaugh puts a statement down in his first game back from suspension. Not sure this one will be very pretty by the end of it, but it's BIG 10 Football and the Wolverines win 35-7.

#14 Louisville vs. #4 Florida State (ACC Championship)

    The final game of the night features the ACC matchup of Louisville and Florida State. Jeff Brohm has been fantastic in his first year with the Cardinals, going 10-2 and taking the team to their first ACC Championship. They take on the unbeaten Seminoles who may be looking at a third string QB as Tate Rodemaker is questionable with a possible concussion. The Cardinals fell to rival Kentucky last week, so they're fired up, but FSU has Playoff hopes with a win, and can't afford a loss with so many teams on their heels. FSU defense makes some plays and the 'Noles win this one 23-14.

The Perfect Parlay:

1. Oregon Moneyline over Washington

    I always say you never want to play a team twice, and this is a game where it really rings true. Since their first meeting, Washington has had a number of close games where they had to gut it out and get the win. Oregon has been DOMINANT and rolling through opponents. Look for the Ducks to make a statement in this game.

2. SMU vs. Tulane - Over in total points (47.5)

    As mentioned before, the Ponies score 41.8 on their own, with Michael Pratt in the mix for Tulane, this game should hit the over and I like the Ponies to win it as well.

Thanks for reading my Conference Championship Predictions and enjoy the football this weekend!

#CFBKnowItAll

Alex Fernando

Rivalry Week Predictions

      Happy Thanksgiving Football Fans! Today and this weekend is my favorite time of year as we have great food to eat, time with family and friends, and some of the best football we could ask for. There are some great NFL games to watch today, and College Football had the Egg Bowl last night and a full slate that starts today. This post will have my predictions on all the games you won't want to miss this weekend, but first let's give a quick recap of the tough loss in Madison for the Huskers last weekend.

    The Huskers yet again found a way to let the game slip away after they failed to do anything on offense following their big 4th quarter. The Huskers haven't scored in overtime since 2014 and despite a solid performance from Chubba Purdy who made his first start of the season. I've got my GOOD, EXPECTED and BAD breakdown below.

GOOD - Chubba Purdy. For a QB who has been sitting in the third string spot all season, battling injuries and taking very few practice reps, Purdy looked very good in his first start of 2023. He opened the game up with a Taylor Martinez type 55 yard TD run, then had a 58 yard pass to Jaylen Lloyd. He finished the game 15/24 (62.5%) for 169 yards with 1 TD and 1 interception on the last play of overtime that I don't blame him for. He also led the game in rushing with 102 and that aforementioned TD. There were a few throws that definitely made me nervous, but on the final drive in regulation for the Huskers he got them down into the red zone, but poor play calling didn't help him much after that. Excited to see what he can do against Iowa!

EXPECTED - Offense falling flat. On the first two drives, Nebraska racked up 151 yards with two big play touchdowns. Throughout the rest of the game and in overtime, the Huskers amassed just 213 total yards and 0 points. Emmett Johnson and Anthony Grant split touches, with 13 and 12 respectively, but neither were used to the level they should be. A few dropped passes and very poor blocking on the perimeter led to the offense stalling out quite quickly after the first quarter.

BAD - Game/Clock Management. Against Maryland, the Huskers could have won the game with a field goal and tried to go for a touchdown. Against Wisconsin, the Huskers could have won with a touchdown and went for a field goal. Chubba Purdy ran the ball down inside the Badger 30 yard line with about 90 seconds left and the Huskers didn't use one of their 3 timeouts until about 20 seconds left in the game. Absolutely HORRIBLE game and clock management by Matt Rhule over the last couple weeks, and I'll throw it back to the game management in Minnesota because we saw this issue at the beginning of the season. This is an issue that needs to be fixed immediately because the Huskers have loss 3 games due to poor game/clock management and that's all on Matt Rhule.

Week 12 Record: 17 - 5

Overall Record: 165 - 55

Rivalry Week Predictions:

UTSA at #23 Tulane

    The Roadrunners and the Green Wave square off in an American Conference duel with major implications on post season opportunities. Both teams are sitting at 7-0 in conference and the winner guarantees their spot in the conference title game. SMU is likely to await the winner as long as they take care of business against Navy. For the Roadrunners, they've won 7 straight and are averaging 34.1 points per game in that span. They're led by Senior QB, Frank Harris. He has yet to throw a pick in the month of November and only has 6 all season. His counterpart, Michael Pratt for Tulane, missed a few games early in the year, but has over 2,000 yards himself along with a 19 to 4 TD:INT ratio. It should be a good duel between these two, and the protection they have is the key factor to watch. UTSA ranks 5th in the nation with 39 sacks so far this season and Tulane isn't far behind with 30. Both teams also rank close with 20 sacks given up by UTSA and 19 sacks given up by Tulane. This should be a fun one to watch, but I'll take Tulane playing at home in a close one. I love the Roadrunners, but the Green Wave holds them off for a 31-28 victory.

Texas Tech at #7 Texas

    Despite numerous close calls, the Longhorns still have just 1 loss on the year from the Red River Rivalry. Texas will seal a Big XII Championship appearance in their final season as a conference member with a win, but don't discount the Red Raiders too quickly. Texas Tech as won 3 straight games, all 3 points or less. They've lost a few one score games, but would love nothing more than to knock off the rival Longhorns. I've been very high on this team for a few reasons. They've bought in well to 2nd year Head Coach Joey McGuire, and they have a powerful ground game with Tahj Brooks. Texas ranks 5th in rush defense on the year, allowing just 82 yards per game. Brooks has a big challenge ahead of him and will need some helpful breaks to win this game. The Red Raiders are -6 with turnovers this year, so they need a clean game of football to win this. Rivalry games are different though, and a win against Texas would be big for Texas Tech as they look to step into one of those top spots of the conference next year. I've been waiting for Texas to lose but I may have to wait one more week. I hope I'm wrong, but Texas gets revenge for last year with a 33-21 victory.

#16 Oregon State at #6 Oregon (The Civil War)

    The Beavers and Ducks meet for the final time (scheduled) as PAC-12 opponents. Oregon joins my Huskers in the BIG 10 next year and the Beavers will remain in what I have dubbed the 2-PAC with Washington State. This is one of the biggest games of the weekend as there's not just bragging rights on the line, but also Oregon's shot at the College Football Playoffs. The Beavers are going to ground and pound with Damien Martinez, hoping to lead to a deadly play action attack for DJ Uaigalelei. Their defense is not easy to move on as they rank 29th in total defense. The Ducks rank 16th (right behind Nebraska) and this unit often gets overlooked because of the tremendous success of the offense. Bo Nix is my Heisman favorite and he has this offense looking like the best in the nation. Their lowest point total this season was 33 in the loss against Washington, however, the Beavers actually rank 2nd in red zone efficiency scoring on 97.5% red zone drives. I'm excited to watch this game and I've got Oregon winning 31-27 behind a Heisman caliber performance from Bo Nix.

Texas A&M at #14 LSU ($)

    The Tigers have a Heisman player of their own in Jayden Daniels, who is arguably the best competition to Bo Nix. Texas A&M has been stout on defense for most of this season, but LSU's offense is not an easy one to slow down. Daniels has just under 3,600 yards passing with 35 TDs and just 4 picks. He's also added another 1,014 yards and 10 TDs on the ground as the Tigers' leading rusher. I think they will have too much offense for the Aggies to keep up with and the Tigers take care of this one 33-21.

#8 Alabama at Auburn (The Iron Bowl) ($)

    The Tide are ROLLIN' since that Week 2 loss to Texas at home, and could find their way into another playoff birth with a couple more wins. It starts against their arch rival, the Auburn Tigers. An Auburn team that lost at home last week to New Mexico State as a 26 point favorite (and made me miss a very nice payout on my sports bet). Not that I'm a vengeful person or anything, but I do think Bama should put up 50 in this game. Jalen Milroe should have another big day and start building his Heisman case for next year. Roll Tide as they prep for Georgia in the SEC Championship with a 40-14 tune up game against Auburn.

#15 Arizona at Arizona State (Duel in the Dessert: Battle for the Territorial Cup)

    The Wildcats have been my team to watch this season and with 5 straight wins (4 against ranked opponents), they are a dangerous team. Head Coach Jedd Fisch really has this team playing well and it all runs through redshirt freshman QB, Noah Fifita. He took over mid-season and has posted nearly 2,000 passing yards with 18 TDs and just 4 picks since. His favorite target is 6'5 Sophomore Tetairoa McMillan who has 976 yards and 9 TDs for the Wildcats. The Sun Devils have struggled in their first season under Kenny Dillingham, but they've had a few flashes with a big win against UCLA a couple weeks ago. It's a rivalry, so they'll play tough, but Beardown and give me the Wildcats in a 34-20 victory.

Washington State at #4 Washington (The Apple Cup)

    The Cougars are in serious danger of not going bowling after starting 4-0 this season, and they only way they can get to the post season is by upsetting their arch rivals on the road who are ranked #4 in the nation. The Huskies finally broke into the top 4 after jumping Florida State after their win against Oregon State on the road. Michael Penix Jr. is also in the Heisman conversations, and he'll look to put up big numbers against a Wazzu defense that ranks 94th in total defense. He'll be slinging it like usual, but also watch for Junior RB Dillon Johnson to have a big game for the Huskies. He was just 11 yards short of his 3rd straight 100+ yard game, so I think he runs wild in this one. Washington inches closer to they playoffs and wins the final Apple Cup as they are also moving to the BIG 10 and leaving Wazzu behind in the 2-PAC. Huskies 38, Cougars 20.

#5 Florida State at Florida (Sunshine Showdown)

    The 'Noles have lost star QB Jordan Travis for the season after a brutal leg injury last week, so the reigns are passed to Junior Tate Rodemaker. He'll make his first start on the road, in the Swamp, against a nasty Florida Team that nearly knocked off Missouri last week. The Gators have not had a stellar season, and Billy Napier's seat is certainly getting warm. However, ending Florida State's 17-game win streak and playoff hopes all in one day could cool things down a bit. They've lost 4 straight, but have battled well in each of those games, typically losing them late in the game. Ex-Badger QB Graham Mertz has renewed his career int he swamp, throwing for 2,903 yards with a fantastic 20:3 TD to INT ratio. He's got a number of weapons around him, and this team can put up more points than you think. Tate Rodemaker will need to play well, but the Seminole defense is my key factor. They need to pressure Graham Mertz and try to force turnovers. Mizzou was gashed by big plays last week, so look for them to get out to space quick. This could be a close one, but I still like Florida State to remain unbeaten. Seminoles win a tight one on the road and finish a perfect regular season with a 27-24 victory.

#24 Clemson at South Carolina

    The Tigers are back in the rankings after knocking off North Carolina last week, and now they turn their sights onto their rival South Carolina. The Gamecocks pulled off a 1 point victory to upset Clemson last year, but other than that this series has been dominated by the Tigers over the past decade. Both squads ar riding a 3-game win streak, but the Gamecocks are still in need of 1 more to go bowling. Statistically, the two QBs are very similar, but Rattler has more yards. This is when I start looking at some hidden stats and one thing I found that could be a factor in this game is penalties. South Carolina averages 7.5 penalties and almost 60 yards per game, which is double Clemson. In a rivalry game where things get chippy, penalties will be a big factor and I like Clemson to keep their cool. Tigers win on the road 26-21.

North Carolina at #22 NC State

    The Tar Heels' season has fallen apart since mid-October, but a win against their in-state rival to get to 9 wins is always a strong way to finish. The Wolfpack are riding a 4-game win streak, especially since Brennan Armstrong has been playing better. He's taken back over the starting reigns from MJ Morris and has 6 TDs (3 passing and 3 rushing) over the past two games. North Carolina's offense is all run through Drake Maye, who has nearly 3,400 yards with 22 TDs and just 7 picks. Unfortunately, his defense doesn't help much as they give up 26 points per game on average. A healthy ground attack behind Sophomore RB Omarion Hampton will keep them in it, but the Wolfpack defense will force turnovers, so give me NC State at home with a 30-24 victory.

Indiana at Purdue (Battle for the Old Oaken Bucket)

    The Boilermakers have struggled in their first season with Head Coach Troy Walters, but could end on a high note beating the rival Hoosiers for The Old Oaken Bucket, one of the oldest rivalry trophies in College Football. Both teams have lost 8 games this season, so it's really about bragging rights and the trophy. Indiana has been close in their last few games, but can never quite get over the hump. Purdue put up 49 on the Gophers two weeks ago, but typically scores around 14 in most games. The Boilermakers have won the last two in this series, but I think Indiana gets the win this year 31-21.

San Jose State at UNLV

    The Spartans may be 6-5, but they are in the mix for a trip to the Mountain West Championship if they knock off the conference leading Rebels of UNLV. If the Spartans win, there will be a 3-way tie atop the conference between these two teams and whoever wins the Air Force/Boise State matchup. Both of those teams have beaten the Spartans, but they would have the win over UNLV and the Rebels have beat Air Force but not played Boise State. Certainly would be some interesting chaos to sort out, but unfortunately for San Jose State, UNLV is looking to dominate this game. They don't necessarily stand out in any major categories, but they're a very well coached and consistent team. Rebels win and move onto the Mountain West Championship with a 34-17 performance.

Northwestern at Illinois

    Somehow, the Wildcats are bowl eligible after just winning 1 game last season and firing Pat Fitzgerald amid a hazing issue just a few weeks before the season. Illinois can become bowl eligible with a win at home. The crazy thing about both of these teams is that they easily could be 5-0 in their last 5 games, but couldn't quite finish them off and had some close losses. Classic BIG 10 West finish and this is a tricky game to predict. I'll give it to the home team because it seems every other BIG 10 West team will get to a bowl before Nebraska does. Illini 30, Wildcats 24.

Wisconsin at Minnesota (Battle for Paul Bunyan's Axe)

    Speaking of BIG 10 teams achieving bowl eligibility, the Gophers can book their post-season ticket, but it requires one more win against the Wisconsin Badgers. Wisconsin earned their 6th win against the Huskers last week, but Minnesota has dropped 3 straight and have a tough task ahead of them. Despite Wisconsin not being a very dangerous team this year, the Gophers have struggled to close out games. Tanner Mordecai woke up last week against the Huskers, coming back from injury and throwing for 160 and a TD while adding another 51 on the ground. Minnesota will struggle with him and I think the Badgers take the Axe. On Wisconsin as they win 16-7.

Virginia Tech at Virginia (Battle for the Commonwealth Cup)

    The Hokies have been up and down this season, but are 1 win away from a bowl game. Virginia only has 3 wins on the season, but one of those was a road win against #10 North Carolina, and they nearly pulled another upset on #10 Louisville a couple weeks ago. I have not been able to predict the Hokies very well this season but I think they have a big game in this one. Sophomore QB Kyron Drones is the man to watch. He's thrown 12 TDs with just 3 picks, and should have a big day in this rivalry. Virginia Tech wins 30-21.

#2 Ohio State at #3 Michigan (The Game)

    For the final time, the BIG 10 East division will be decided by the winner of Ohio State and Michigan. These bitter rivals are looking to not only solidify their own spot in the BIG 10 Championship and the College Football Playoff, but also knock the other out of consideration. Ohio State has arguably the most talented receiver in the country with Marvin Harrison Jr., and with him averaging 17.6 yards per catch, he'll be looking to gash the formidable Michigan defense. The Wolverines may still have a few signals memorized that the Buckeyes have, but I expect this to be a closer game than the previous two. Offensively, Michigan is going to pound the rock, so Ohio State's defense will be tested. They've stuffed everyone they've played, but the team as a whole often starts slow. I'm not quite sure what direction this game will go, but it will be a grueling game and one turnover could cost a team the game. Michigan has dominated opponents all year and tend to start more quickly than the Buckeyes. Playing at home I think they win and head to another BIG 10 Championship. Wolverines 23, Buckeyes 21.

Iowa at Nebraska (The Heroes Game)

    The Huskers need one win to book a bowl trip, and it comes down to the battle against Iowa in Farmaggedon. The Hawkeyes have already secured their spot in the BIG 10 Championship, and are looking for their 10th win of the season as they come to Lincoln. Nebraska has essentially pissed away victories in the last three games, but if you remember back to the beginning of the season, my prediction for the Huskers was 4-5 wins with a victory over Iowa. They snuck in a win against Illinois that I didn't expect, but other than that I've been spot on. Chubba Purdy will make his second start and he looks like the best chance for the Huskers to pull out a victory. He played great against Wisconsin, especially when throwing the ball. Not that any forward pass is a high bar between these two teams, but he was fairly accurate last week and that will be needed against a formidable Iowa defense. Neither team has an offense that can move the ball very well, but both teams do have top 15 total defenses, so this is pure, unadulterated BIG 10 West Football. Double digit points for either team is a stretch, and this game closes out as the lowest ever combined point total in college football betting history.  If I could bet on this game (thanks Nebraska laws), I would take the under. With little points expected in this game, the small mistakes become very big. Iowa is great at taking advantage of those and Nebraska is great at making them. Look for penalties and turnovers to bog down the loser of this game. And for the love of all things holy in the world, FEED EMMETT JOHNSON! Hopefully the Huskers can flip the script on that because I have them winning this game 12-6 at home in Memorial. GO BIG RED, BEAT IOWA!

Quick Hit Predictions:

TCU at #13 Oklahoma - Frogs might not go bowling after a trip to the natty last year, tough rebuild in Ft. Worth. Sooners win, but need some help from BYU to go to the Big XII Championship. OU 34, TCU 17.

James Madison at Coastal Carolina - The Dukes fell in overtime to App State last week and have also decided not to take legal action against the NCAA to let them into a bowl. They finish their season with a win to get to 11-1 and we'll see them in the post season in 2024. James Madison 37, Coastal 23.

Air Force at Boise State - Winner goes to the Mountain West Championship game, and with the Falcons on a 3 game slide, the Broncos have an edge. All run game in this one, but Boise State wins 26-20.

Kentucky at #10 Lousiville - The Cardinals are set to play Florida State in the ACC Championship and Jeff Brohm is looking fantastic in his first year back home. They beat Kentucky 33-21.

BYU at #20 Oklahoma State - The Cougars need 1 more win to become bowl eligible, but with a Big XII Championship Game appearance on the line Mike Gundy will have this squad ready. Ollie Gordon II runs wild and the Pokes win it 36-28.

Iowa State at #19 Kansas State - The Powercats need some help if they want a shot at repeating their title, but should handle business against the Cyclones. Big TCU and BYU fans in Manhattan this weekend. K-State 28, ISU 10. The actual Farmmaggedon!

#1 Georgia at Georgia Tech ($) - The Ramblin' Wreck have pulled off a few upsets this season, but this would be the biggest one yet. The Yellow Jackets haven't won since 2016 though, and the last few have been pretty ugly. UGA rolls GT with a 38-10 tune up game ahead of Bama.

#18 Notre Dame at Stanford - The Irish and the Trees meet up on the Farm as ND looks to finish strong with a 9-3 record that should send them to a solid bowl game. Irish win 41-14.

Cal at UCLA - With Chip Kelly potentially on the chopping block, a win here could go a long way to giving him more time in LA. The Golden Bears are itching for a bowl game though and this one should be close. Give me Cal in the road upset 28-23.

Colorado at Utah - Coach Prime will finish out his first season against the Utes in Salt Lake City. The Buffs have had a lot of close games, but giving up 54 sacks in one season along with your QB having no pocket awareness at all does not win you many games, no matter what the Prime Effect looks like. Utes route the Buffaloes who will likely have some stories during the offseason. Utah 33, Colorado 14.

The Perfect Parlay:

1. LSU covers -11.5 against Texas A&M. The Aggies have a tough defense, but Jayden Daniels and the Bayou Bengals offense is electric. They average 46.8 points per game and while they may get a few stops, the Aggies don't have the fire power to keep up. LSU can cover 12 in this game.

2. Bama covers -13 against Auburn. I get nervous putting money down on rivalries, especially in-state ones where there's a lot of bad blood, but just looking at the stats I feel confident in this one. Bama averages 36.5 points per game and runs the ball very effectively. Auburn ranks 80th against the run and gave up 213 on the ground the New Mexico State at home last week. Bama wins by two TDs easy.

3. Georgia covers -24 against Georgia Tech. Again, this week was tough to make bets on with all the rivalry games, but the Yellow Jackets rank 104th in scoring defense, giving up 30.5 points per game and the Bulldogs are healthy and rolling. The'll put up big points in this one.

Thanks for reading my Rivalry Week Predictions and enjoy all the great football this holiday weekend. GO BIG RED!

#CFBKnowItAll

Alex Fernando