Week 4 Predictions

      Welcome to Week 4 of College Football and it's set to be a good one! My Huskers open up BIG 10 play against Michigan, we've got a couple of ranked versus ranked matchups and a number of teams on upset watch. I'm going to skip the reflections and breakdown of the Huskers' win against Houston Christian, but I am glad to see Nebraska taking care of business against an opponent of that level. As highlighted over the last couple of weeks, that is what good teams do. I'll also take my flowers for the score prediction as I was very close with my 54-7 score and the Huskers won 59-7! I also had WVU 30-24 over Pitt and it was 31-24. I'm getting pretty good at this! We'll move right into my Week 4 Predictions and all the games you should keep an eye on today.

Week 3 Results: 15 - 5

Overall Results: 50 - 19

Week 4 Predictions:

#17 Texas Tech at #16 Utah

     Our Big Noon Kickoff takes place at 10 AM local time for the Utes of Salt Lake City. Utah hosts this year's "best team money can buy" with Texas Tech coming to town. Easily one of the biggest matchups in the Big XII this season, and I think we could very well see a rematch of these teams in the Big XII Championship. A long way to go until then, but for today we get to see if Texas Tech can back up all the money they threw on the table. I love Kyle Whittingham and his Utah teams. They always have an aggressive defense and are tough at home. They've rebuilt their offense around Junior New Mexico transfer Devon Dampier at QB. He's thrown for 628 yards this season while adding another 198 on the ground with 9 total TDs. For the Red Raiders, Senior QB Behren Morton leads the 2nd ranked offense in the nation, throwing for 923 yards with 11 TDs and just 1 pick. Defensively this game comes down to pressure and third down stops. Both teams have 9 sacks on the season, which means these offenses need to stay ahead of the chains. I may regret this, and this pick does not reflect my overall reflections of the losing team, but put your Guns Up and WRECK 'EM as Texas Tech pulls off a massive statement win against Utah. Red Raiders 27, Utah 26.

SMU at TCU (Battle for the Iron Skillet)

     These cross-town rivals are finishing the 110 year old rivalry with one last battle for the Iron Skillet. As of right now, there are no plans to get this rivalry back on the schedule and it's certainly a losing situation for the fans, especially in the Dallas/Fort Worth area. This year's game should be a fun one (and a primary reason to keep the series going after 103 meetings) as both teams are much more powerful than in previous stages of their respective CFB lives. TCU was in the title game a couple of years ago and SMU made the playoffs last season. There is money supporting these programs and a couple of good coaches, one of whom left SMU for TCU to add some fire to the rivalry. Regardless, we should see fireworks in this one. Both offenses are top 30 in scoring and the defenses will have a lot to handle. SMU gave up 48 to Baylor in double OT a couple weeks ago after leading by 14 with about 6 minutes left in the game. The Horned Frogs' defense hasn't been tested much yet, but Kevin Jennings should take care of that quickly. I truly love watching both of these teams, so it is hard to pick a winner here. I'll lean on the Ponies because they seem a bit more balanced on offense, but no matter what this will be a fun game to watch in the opening window. SMU takes the Skillet 41-38.

Oregon State at #6 Oregon (Civil War)

As of right now, this is the last Civil War scheduled to be played. These are games that need to be played and it's horrible to see some of these rivalries disappear from the sport. Rivalries like the one between the Ducks and the Beavers are what truly make College Football unique. But as for this game, Oregon should roll. Oregon State is in a tough spot with their 0-3 start, battling but not quite finishing throughout their games. Despite already passing for 896 yards and 6 TDs, Maalik Murphy of the Beavers has been a bit careless with 5 picks as well. Senior RB Anthony Hankerson is a fun one to watch if you love downhill, smash mouth backs, but he won't be enough to hang with the Ducks. I expect Dantae Moore and the Ducks to put their offense into high gear and win this game 45-14.

#22 Auburn at #11 Oklahoma

     The Jackson Arnold bowl is set to take place in Norman as the ex-Sooner comes back leading his new team, the Auburn Tigers into a ranked versus ranked matchup in the SEC. John Mateer is now running the show as OU's quarterback, and literally running as he's got 4 TDs on the ground already this season. Arnold has 4 rushing TDs of his own too, so defenses will be tested early and often with their dual-threat ability. Oklahoma's defense has been much improved from the middle of last season, and Auburn is still figuring out their passing attack with Arnold. They have fabulous receivers in Eric Singleton Jr. and Cam Coleman, but both wideouts only have 149 yards each on the season. We'll see if they can open up their air attack today, but playing in Norman is no easy task. The Sooners need to clean up on the turnovers as they are -5 on the season, but I'll give them the edge, I think Mateer with OC Ben Arbuckle is too much for Auburn to handle on the road. Boomer Sooner 36-30.

Tulane at #13 Ole Miss

     One of my upset watch games features the Green Wave taking on the Rebels at the Grove. Ole Miss does not have much for defense and Jake Retzlaf has been dynamic for Tulane, racking up 800 total yards and 8 TDs. Ole Miss is expected to start Trinidad Chambliss at QB with the injury to Austin Simmons, and their offense was humming with Chambliss. I doubt they'll miss a beat within their offensive attack, but can they win another shootout? I really like Tulane to keep pace in this game, especially as one of the lead candidates for the G5 rep in the playoffs. I'll go with the Rebels playing at home, but expect fireworks and expect the Green Wave to hang around in this game and cover the -11.5. Ole Miss 42, Tulane 34.

North Carolina at UCF

     Scott Frost round 2 at UCF is off to a 2-0 start against lower level competition. Their first true matchup of the season pits them against Bill Belichick and the Tar Heels of North Carolina. Yes, Scott Frost and Bill Belichick are coaching against each other in a game of College Football, how can you not love this sport? As for the game, it would be nice to see UNC pull the upset on the road, but this team has too many jumbled pieces for me to feel comfortable picking them. Gio Lopez does bring a danger factor to UCF with his legs, but I'll begrudgingly take the home team Knights. They've got 5 sacks in their two games to go with 9 pass deflections and two picks. Defense at home is always a good sign. UCF 31, UNC 27.

South Carolina at #23 Missouri

     The Gamecocks head to the "other" Columbia in the SEC as the Tigers of Mizzou await. LaNorris Sellers is coming out of concussion protocol and is cleared for this game. With Sellers playing, the Gamecocks are much more dangerous, especially with his dual threat ability. On the other side, Beau Pribula has looked impressive as a starter with the Tigers after transferring from Penn State. Missouri's offense has been boosted by a strong run game from Sophomore Ahmad Hardy, who averages 8.1 yards per carry and has racked up 5 TDs so far this season. This is a game needed by South Carolina, and I'm not convinced by Missouri, but I'll take them at home. Mizzou wins 30-27.

Florida at #4 Miami

     The Gators threw 5 interceptions in Death Valley against LSU last week but only lost by 10. Miami whomped South Florida 49-12, showing little concern of the Bulls. It's really hard to imagine Miami not steam rolling in this game, but Florida doesn't go down easy. Defensively, this team has done well not to give up many yards or points, as they rank in the top 30 for total and scoring defense. Unfortunately for Gator fans, they rank 124th in the nation with just 2 sacks through 3 games. Without being able to get pressure on Carson Beck, he will pick you apart in this offense. Miami on the other side, loves to get pressure, and DJ Lagway has already been struggling. I still don't believe in Carson Beck as a top tier QB, but I do think he fits this system for Miami very well, and the Hurricanes win 28-17.

#9 Illinois at #19 Indiana

     The other BIG 10 game to watch today takes place in Bloomington as the Hoosiers square off with the Illini. Ahead of the season I predicted that Illinois would be this year's Indiana getting into the playoffs, and today is where that theory gets put to the test. Fernando Mendoza leads Indiana now after transferring from Cal, and he's put up impressive numbers against very lackluster competition. For Illinois, the road test at Duke a couple of weeks ago was an impressive win, but conference play is always a step up. Senior QB Luke Altmeyer has a lot of experience to bring as a 3rd year starter. He commands this offense well and he's complimented by a dynamic thunder and lightening duo at RB. Junior Kaden Feagin is 6'3, 250 averaging 4.4 yards per carry as he rumbles through defenders. Sophomore Ca'lil Valentine is 5'9 190 with great pass catching ability out of the backfield and makes defenders miss in space. Indiana's defense needs to focus on tackling this week, because it won't be easy. We know that Curt Cignetti just wins though, and playing with a home field advantage always helps the defense. This will be a great game to watch, but I'm sticking to my guns. I think Illinois is a VERY dangerous team this season, and the Illini beat the Hoosiers 33-21.

Washington at Washington State (The Apple Cup)

     While conference realignment has destroyed so many rivalries, The Apple Cup remains and has at least a few more games scheduled in coming years. Wazzu is returning home after a beat down in North Texas as the Mean Green hung 59 on the Cougars en route to victory. The Dubs are off a BYE week and will look to lean on Senior RB Jonah Coleman as they battle across the Palouse. Coleman has nearly 300 rushing yards through just 2 games with 7 TDs and a gashing 7.4 yard per carry average. The Cougars rank 85th in rush defense through the early stages of this season, so they will need to plug those holes quickly in order to keep the chains in their favor. I like Washington to win here and the Apple Cup returns to the Seattle for the 77th time in history. Huskies 34, Cougars 21.

Arizona State at Baylor

     One of the underrated Big XII games this week takes place in Waco, Texas as the reigning conference champ Sun Devils take on the Bears. Arizona State bounced back with an impressive win against Texas State last week, but don't be sleeping on these Baylor Bears. While their defense has some holes, Sawyer Robertson has been slinging it this year, throwing for 1,070 yards with 10 TDs and just 2 picks. He has the offense averaging over 500 yards per game and 38 points per game. He's complimented by Sophomore RB Bryson Washington, who is averaging 4.6 yards per carry with 304 yards and 4 TDs on the season. I expect Baylor to score and gash the Sun Devils for a few big plays. Arizona State is susceptible to those defensively, and ex-Baylor QB Blake Shapen lit them up for 279 yards and 3 TDs. Offensively, I do still like what Kenny Dillingham brings to the table, especially with Sam Leavitt throwing to Jordyn Tyson on the outside. I expect a classic, Big XII barn burner for this game, but I like the Bears to win at home 37-33. Sic 'em!

Michigan State at #25 USC (New Rivalry Name: The Illiad)

     Just like in ancient history, the Spartans and the Trojans are set to do battle. I'm unofficially officially dubbing this new BIG 10 matchup the Illiad and the Trophy is a Trojan Horse. The marketing opportunities for this game is off the charts. On the field, these teams clash with very contrasting styles of play. USC is a dynamic, high-powered offense with an extremely efficient and talented QB leading the way with Jayden Maiava 989 passing yards and 6 TDs. While this has been against lesser competition, the Trojans certainly look to bring firepower to the offensive side of this war in the Coliseum. Michigan State comes in with a unblemished record of their own and has begun to put up the kind of points Junior QB Aidan Chiles promised fans when he took over the starting role. He's got 656 passing yards and a 6:1 TD to INT ratio to his name thus far. Both of these QBs have dual threat ability and will cause headaches on third down. Much like the Illiad of old, this one should be an all out assault from the offensive attacks. The key factor to watch is the clock. This game kicks off at 8 PM Pacific Time which is 11 PM Eastern Time. That means that by the middle of the second quarter, the Spartans will be battling on midnight body clocks. Never a recipe for success and I think USC wins this one 45-28.

Fresno State at Hawai'i

     The Bulldogs travel to the Islands as the Rainbow Warriors look to go for back-to-back wins in this rivalry and have 4 of the last 5 meetings in their favor. Fresno was crushed by Kansas to open the year, but since then have looked strong, especially in the run game where Sophomore RB Bryson Donelson is averaging 6.5 yards per carry. EJ Warner has improved each week at QB and the Bulldogs are averaging over 35 points per game. I have Hawai'i making a bowl game this year, but I don't know if they can hang enough points to beat Fresno, even at home. This is always an entertaining rivalry game, so if you're up late be sure to turn it on. Fresno State 33, Hawai'i 28.

#21 Michigan at Nebraska (The Bussin' Bowl)

     Nebraska hosts Michigan for the BIG 10 opener in Memorial Stadium. Two iconic blue bloods of college football with a new rivalry in the Bussin' Bowl, named after the Bussin' With the Boys podcast led by Michigan's Taylor Lewan and Nebraska's Will Compton. This is the first true test for Nebraska, and with 9 years separating this team from their last ranked win, the pressure is high for Matt Rhule and staff to win this game. This would be a big statement win for Nebraska as they work back into blue blood status, especially when Michigan won 45-7 last time in 2023. For the Huskers, stopping the run is critical in this game. Junior RB Justice Haynes is averaging 7.9 yards per carry with 388 yards and 5 TDs so far this season. Against Cincy, the Blackshirt front 7 was pushed around a bit, so look for Michigan to try and establish their presence on the line of scrimmage early. I expect Nebraska to load the box and force Bryce Underwood to beat Nebraska with his arm. He's an extremely talented QB, but he's a freshman playing his 4th game in a very hostile road environment. Plus, Nebraska's pass defense currently ranks #1 in the nation and is the strength of this defense. Containing Underwood in the run game is key as well, especially when the Huskers often struggle against dual-threat QBs. Offensively, it runs through Dylan Raiola's decision making. He's shown great understanding with Dana Holgorsen's offense, finding the open receivers after working through his reads and progressions. If Emmett Johnson can continue a similar pace with the rushing attack, Dylan should be able to pick apart the Michigan secondary with some play action. Turnovers are always a big factor for conference games, so Nebraska needs to stay clean in that category. There is great momentum with this program and we know the crowd (including myself) will be going wild at Memorial today. Nebraska seems primed to make a statement, and I say they do it today. GO BIG RED as the Huskers beat Michigan 27-24.

Quick Hit Predictions:

Arkansas at Memphis - The Hogs are on the road again, this time at a dangerous Memphis team who averages 37 points per game so far this season. Arkansas has a dynamic offense of their own, and it all runs through QB Taylen Green. He's already thrown for 866 yards with 11 TDs and 2 picks while adding another 307 and 2 TDs on the ground. He's the X-factor for this team, the defense just needs to get a few stops. Woo Pig as the Hogs win 38-31.

Maryland at Wisconsin - A BIG 10 matchup between the Terps and Badgers is a much needed get right game for Luke Fickell and a good measuring stick for Mike Locksley. I'm not high on either team, but Wisconsin at home is hard to go against. Badgers beat the Terps 23-14.

Syracuse at Clemson - The Tigers have quickly fallen off everyone's radar with some very poor offensive performances and a 1-2 record. Exactly where Dabo wants to be. I love Fran Brown and Syracuse, but this is a bad week to catch Clemson. Tigers win 30-17.

Purdue at #24 Notre Dame - Certainly a game for the Irish to bounce back with after a rough 0-2 start, but with a banged up defense for Notre Dame the Boilermakers could hang for a bit. Notre Dame wins 31-13.

James Madison at Liberty - JMU is looking to unseat Liberty as the Flames struggles continue with back-to-back losses on the road at Jacksonville State and Bowling Green. My guy Tyler Hurst makes some fantastic graphics for their football socials (seriously, check them out), but that won't be enough to stop the Dukes. JMU 37, Liberty 23

NC State at Duke - The Wolfpack are quietly finding ways to win close games and now travel to Duke who is coming off back-to-back losses against Illinois and Tulane. The QB battle with CJ Bailey and Darian Mensah will be really fun to watch, but I'll give the nod to the road team because of their rushing attack with Sophomore RB Hollywood Smothers averaging 6.0 yards per carry. Wolfpack win 27-24.

West Virginia at Kansas - West Virginia is coming off a major win at home against Pitt in their comeback, overtime victory. Now they go on the road against a well-rested Jayhawk team that has been sitting with their rivalry loss to Mizzou for two weeks? Yeah, give me Jaylon Daniels to ROCK CHALK over the Mountaineers for a 33-21 win.

BYU at Eastern Carolina - The Cougars travel East to take on the Pirates in a very dangerous tripping hazard game. BYU is coming off a BYE week, but their secondary will be tested by the air raid attack from Senior QB Katin Houser. He's got 973 with 5 TDs on the season and I think the Pirates steal one here. East Carolina 30, BYU 24.

Cal at San Diego State - The Calgorithm has a fabulous young QB in Freshman Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, who has thrown for 780 yards with 6 TDs and 1 pick while adding another TD on the ground. He has looked extremely comfortable in this offense very early into his career and places the ball where his wideouts can make plays. Golden Bears on the road 36-17.

The Perfect Parlay:

1. Illinois money-line at Indiana. As highlighted above, I think the Illini are a dangerous team and I'm not sure Indiana has the defense to stop them. Take the Illini on the road.

2. Tulane +11.5 at Ole Miss. There won't be much defense in this game, and the Green Wave know how to put up points, they cover.

3. Baylor money-line versus Arizona State. The Big XII is a wild place, there's a good chance these teams are both in the mix for a conference title bid at the end of the year. Give me the Bears today!

Thanks for reading my Week 4 Predictions and enjoy your College Football Saturday! GO BIG RED!

#CFBKnowItAll

Alex Fernando