Hello football fans and welcome to Week 7 of the college football season! We have a fabulous slate of games for this weekend, so there is a lot to break down with these predictions. This post has all the games you need to watch this weekend and my keys to each game. Enjoy!
Week 6 Record: 19 - 4
Overall Record: 99 - 35
Week 7 Predictions:
#24 South Florida at North Texas
One of the best games to watch this weekend is the Friday night matchup of the USF Bulls on the road against the Mean Green of North Texas. Both of these teams have a shot to represent the Group of 5 in the playoffs, but a lot of their chances hinge on this game. The Mean Green could make a very big statement with a win at home. They're unbeaten so far this season, and most of their success is from the performance of Freshman QB Drew Mestemaker. He's thrown for 1,247 yards with 11 TDs and 0 picks so far this season. He has a lot of weapons around him, so if the offense gets rolling, this could be a high-scoring affair. Looking at the USF Bulls, they have impressed in every game separate of Miami. QB Byrum Brown has accounted for 13 total TDs and is always a handful for opposing defenses. The difference maker will be on which defense makes the big stops. So far this season, USF's defense has been impressive and while the Mean Green is unbeaten, they've given up quite a few points. I'll take USF with some key stops on the road 38-33.
#1 Ohio State at #17 Illinois (Battle for the Illibuck Trophy)
The Buckeyes are once again on Big Noon Kickoff as they travel to Champagne, IL to take on the Fighting Illini. These two teams play for one of my all-time favorite trophies in college football, the Illibuck. As the second oldest BIG 10 rivalry trophy this wooden turtle carries a lot of tradition. Illinois has a big statement opportunity if they want to get back in the mix for the BIG 10 Title. This is easily the most difficult game remaining on their schedule, and while they'll still be a playoff factor at 10-2, a win here would put them on the inside track to the College Football Playoffs. QB Luke Altmeyer is playing near flawless with more than 1,500 yards with 12 passing TDs and 0 picks. His counterpart, Julian Sayin has tremendous talent, but is still young. Luckily, Ohio State's defense is incredible and will suffocate the Illini offense before they truly get rolling. Ohio State 33, Illinois 14.
#8 Alabama at #14 Missouri
The Tide Roll onto Missouri who is hoping to gain some time in the spotlight with a big win. Star RB Ahmad Hardy is one of the top backs in the nation, rushing for 730 yards and 9 TDs thus far. Penn State transfer Beau Pribula has looked very impressive with 1,203 yards to go with 9 TDs of his own and 3 picks. This could be a game where we see a lot of points as both offenses have playmakers all over the field. Bama QB Ty Simpson has been very impressive since their loss to Florida State, throwing for 13 TDs and just 1 pick. This is an easy trap game for Alabama coming off two big games against Georgia and Vandy, especially when many believe Missouri's ranking might be a bit high. Perfect opportunity for the Tigers, and they usually hang tough in the first half of these games. I'll give Mizzou some credit to hang around, but I think Alabama will be ready for this game and take the win 34-21.
#7 Indiana at #3 Oregon
In back-to-back weeks College Gameday has gone to a Vanderbilt game and an Indiana game. Unfortunately for both of those teams, they're playing against a couple of the best teams in the nation with Bama and now Oregon. I really do like this matchup for a couple of reasons. First of all, we'll get to see Indiana against elite competition. Their schedule apart from Illinois has been easy thus far, and while I do think Illinois is a good team, they're not Oregon level. Secondly, both of these head coaches don't give a flying f*** about who they are playing or what the game should look like, they're going to put up points. Both Curt Cignetti and Dan Lanning want to completely bury your team every chance they get. Looking at some of the key players in this game, Dante Moore and Fernando Mendoza are both finding themselves in Heisman talks with their play so far this year. Moore has more than 1,200 yards with a 14:1 TD to INT ratio and Mendoza has similar yardage with a 16:1 ratio and another 2 TDs on the ground. Both defensive fronts will have a lot of trouble containing these two in the pocket, so third downs will be crucial to convert in this game. I've learned not to discount the Hoosiers and Cignetti, but I think Oregon is still the top team in the BIG 10 right now. Indiana will certainly be in the mix for playoffs, but I'm following my East to West rule and I like Oregon at home. Ducks beat the Hoosiers 31-24.
#6 Oklahoma vs Texas (Red River Rivalry)
One of the best scenes in all of College Football is the Cotton Bowl split down the 50 yard line with burnt orange and maroon. As a Husker, I despise both of these teams, but as a College Football Fan this is always one of my favorite games to watch. I have my doubts on Sooner QB John Mateer actually being able to play in this game, but they do have him as questionable coming off his hand surgery. If he plays, it's lights out for Texas, especially with how abysmal their offense has been. If Oklahoma has Michael Hawkins under center, then their offense will struggle as well. These games can typically turn into a shootout, but that's likely not the case today. Both teams have fantastic defenses and the offenses can get stuck in the mud sometimes. Arch Manning has really struggled this year (a little more than I predicted, but I still called it), and Oklahoma's defense loves to get pressure. The Sooners are 2nd in the nation with 21 sacks on the year and Texas' new offensive line has looked very disorganized. Oklahoma also ranks 1st in the nation for opponent 3rd down conversions allowing 17.4%, and Texas ranks 116th in the nation in converting 3rd downs at 34.4%. Too much defense for the Sooners and the Texas tailspin continues. Boomer Sooner in the Red River Rivalry as they win 23-10.
Arkansas at #12 Tennessee
Bobby Petrino's first game as the Razorbacks Interim Coach takes him to Rocky Top as the take on the Volunteers. Arkansas pulled a major upset in this game last year, and we could be in for another wild one. Arkansas QB Taylen Green has accounted for nearly 2,000 total yards this season and has 14 TDs to his name. Unfortunately for the Razorbacks, defense has been their issue, and Tennessee can put up some big numbers on the scoreboard. Transfer QB Joey Augilar has picked apart opposing defenses for nearly 1,500 yards with 13 TDs and 5 interceptions so far this season. Sophomore RB Desean Bishop has done well taking over for Dylan Sampson, averaging 6.8 yards per carry with 335 yards and 4 TDs on the season. Arkansas gave up 210 yards on the ground a couple weeks ago to Notre Dame, and I'm not sure that's going to get fixed by firing the coach. Tennessee wins at home 34-24.
Florida at #5 Texas A&M
The Gators knocked off the Longhorns last weekend and always seem to play their best when Billy Napier's seat is blazing hot. The Aggies come in with a very solid looking team that almost no one is talking about. They've started a few games at a slower pace than some fans would like, but I really like the growth I've seen from QB Marcel Reed. He's done well distributing the ball to his playmakers with 9 of his 11 TD passes going to either Mario Craver or KC Concepcion. The Aggies have leaned on their stout defense the last couple of weeks, ranking 5th in opponent 3rd down conversions. You never know what Florida team you're going to get, so the upset is certainly in play, but you do know the type of team Mike Elko will bring you. Gig 'Em Aggies as they beat the Gators 27-21.
Iowa at Wisconsin (Battle for the Heartland Trophy)
If you miss the BIG 10 West, this is your chance to feel nostalgic. With two solid defenses and very rough offenses, there aren't many points to be had in this one. Both teams have struggled with their passing attacks, ranking 96th (Wisconsin) and 125th (Iowa) in the nation. Other than the Bronze Cow up for grabs, there really isn't much interesting in this game. I'm dusting off my old rules for this one, and my main rule for the BIG 10 West is the first team to 20 points wins the game. Iowa will win this snoozefest 20-14. Bet the under.
#10 Georgia at Auburn
The Bulldogs travel to Jordan Hare Stadium to take on Auburn in an SEC battle with some upset potential. The Tigers are still trying to find their footing offensively, but certainly have the playmakers to make things interesting. Jackson Arnold needs to find wideouts Eric Singleton Jr. and Cam Coleman, especially against a Georgia defense 85th against the pass. Auburn has not found much balance to their offense though, and in the two losses against Oklahoma and Texas A&M, they finished with just 119 rushing yards combined. Georgia's offense has been strong to start the season, averaging 34.6 points per game. Even on the road, I trust Kirby Smart more than I do Hugh Freeze. Bulldogs win 28-14.
#15 Michigan at USC
The Trojans host Michigan in a BIG 10 matchup that could get them back in the mix with a win. Both teams have a favorable schedule apart from a game or two that could keep their BIG 10 title and playoff hopes alive. We know the Wolverines are looking to run and run a lot. Junior RB Justice Haynes has racked up 654 yards with 8 TDs this season. USC has been sitting on their loss to Illinois over the BYE week and should take notes from Nebraska's game against Michigan. Bryce Underwood is and will be a fantastic QB, but he's only in his 6th college game. Another tough road environment, traveling 3 time zones and looking at a team with 17 sacks already this season, USC should make his life miserable. Sell out to stop the run and force Underwood to beat you in the passing game. Offensively for the Trojans, leave the ball in your quarterback's hand. Jayden Maiava is one of my dark horse Heisman candidates, especially if they get the win here. He's thrown for nearly 1,600 yards with 11 TDs and just 1 pick. He's got 4 more on the ground and his ability to extend plays will certainly cause Michigan headaches tonight. It's time to show up or show out Trojans, Fight On and beat Michigan 33-28.
South Carolina at #11 LSU
The Gamecocks had a lot of momentum coming into this season, but a rough start has them at 3-2 with both losses coming in SEC play. LSU has had two weeks to sit on their loss to Ole Miss and try to get some life into their offense. South Carolina has struggled offensively as well, so this could be more of a defensive battle than originally expected when the season began. Look for LSU's defense to blitz early and often as South Carolina has given up 15 sacks and 31 tackles for loss on the season. LaNorris Sellers has been under pressure a lot and there's little to no run game giving him support. The offensive line has been pushed in the wrong direction for most of this season, and now they have to deal with an LSU crowd in Death Valley at night. I think Garrett Nussmeier and the Tiger offense will bounce back and lead them to a 27-17 home victory over South Carolina.
#21 Arizona State at Utah
The Sun Devils are on the road against the Utes for a classic PAC-12, I mean Big XII after dark. Utah has a perfect get right game in front of them with Arizona State coming in. The reigning Big XII Champs are likely to be without starting QB Sam Leavitt, which means ex-Husker Jeff Sims will be starting at QB. I don't trust him to win a football game in any way, shape or form, so I'm already on the Utah side of this pick. Combine that with a night game at home and I know Kyle Whittingham will have his team ready. I still have them both as feisty Big XII contenders, but Devon Dampier should have a big night against a defense that has been burned by a few big plays this season. The Sun Devils are always a tough win, but with Jeff Sims at QB, I'm picking Utah big. Utes 35, Sun Devils 20.
Nebraska at Maryland
The Huskers have their first true road trip as they take on the Terps in Maryland. They blew a 20-3 4th quarter lead against Washington last week, so Nebraska better be ready to get their worst. Freshman QB Malik Washington has been dynamic to start this season, throwing for 1,257 yards with 9 TDs and 2 picks. He's got dual-threat ability as well with 3 more TDs on the ground. Nebraska did well to contain Aiden Chiles last week, but Brendan Sorsby ran all over the Huskers in Arrowhead. The Blackshirts still rank #1 in pass defense, but look for the Terps to test that as they have 4 players with at least 18 catches this season. They spread the ball well to their playmakers, so Nebraska will need to be extremely disciplined with their coverages, especially in zone. The Huskers have done well to get pressure last week, so I hope that trend continues today. Offensively for Nebraska, the game plan needs to focus on getting Emmett Johnson rolling in the run game and feeding Jacory Barney Jr. and Nyziah Hunter the ball. Dylan has been dishing it out well, so trust him to make the reads. However, the protection has been rough and if Nebraska can establish the run early that will take a lot of pressure off him with shorter chains to manage. Nebraska needs at least 120 yards on the ground in this one, which won't come easy as Maryland ranks 24th in rush defense giving up just 96 yards per game on average. Feed Emmett Johnson and make smart throws to keep the chains moving. I think Nebraska has a chance to make a great statement on the road and get on a run here for conference play. GO BIG RED for a 36-24 win.
Quick Hit Predictions:
Pitt at #25 Florida State - The Panthers love to live dangerously, but could knock FSU out of the rankings with a win on the road. The Seminoles are in a bit of trouble with back-to-back losses and now facing a revived Pitt squad with Freshman QB Mason Heintschel at the helm. I think they bounce back and Florida State wins 33-27 at home.
UCF at Cincinnati - The Bearcats are red hot and can keep rolling in the Big XII with a win at home. They've got a very favorable schedule and it starts with a 36-24 win over UCF.
NC State at #16 Notre Dame - The Irish are starting to hit their grove after the 0-2 start and now host the upset minded Wolfpack of NC State. Unfortunately, they struggle to get teams off the field on 3rd down, and Jeremiah Love will keep ND in 3rd and short. Irish 37, Wolfpack 17.
TCU at Kansas State - Frogs keep living dangerously and the Wildcats are starting to get their offense back on track. Unfortunately, K-State likes to shoot themselves in the foot, and if Josh Hoover can play a bit more consistently, the Frogs should handle this one. TCU 30, Kansas State 24.
Kansas at #9 Texas Tech - The Jayhawks offense has been one of the best you haven't watched this season, all behind QB Jalon Daniels racking up over 1,700 yards and 17 total TDs. Unfortunately for my KU friends, they're about to get Wrecked by the Red Raiders. Texas Tech needs to make sure they don't look ahead to Arizona State, but I've got them winning 38-17. Guns Up, Wreck 'Em!
#18 BYU at Arizona - Another couple of teams hanging in the weeds of this Big XII race are BYU and Arizona. The Cougars haven't been tested too much this season, but the Wildcats playing at home are certainly not one to sleep on. Two great QBs to watch in this one with Bear Bachmeier and Noah Fafita. This smells like an upset, so let's go Wildcats 34-31.
Thanks for reading my Week 7 Predictions and enjoy a fantastic day of College Football!
#CFBKnowItAll
Alex Fernando
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