Week 10 Predictions

      Welcome to November College Football Fans! Halloween will be extended just a bit as my Huskers host a Blackout game against USC, but we've shifted into November football, which means the Playoffs are in sight. However, this is where teams always seem to have their season derailed, typically when playing just the wrong opponent. I've got an impressive slate of games for you all this week and hope you're excited for what's sure to be a crazy finish to an already wild season. We've got a crisp, cool evening in Lincoln for some football, so let's get those pads cracking and make some picks!

Week 9 Results: 18 - 7

Overall Results: 146 - 57

Week 10 Predictions:

Penn State at #1 Ohio State

     Before the start of the season this was a game thought to be one of the best to occur all year, with BIG 10 Championship implications on the line. Now, the Buckeyes are looking to choke the remaining life out of an already beaten and battered Penn State squad. The Nittany Lions are coming off a BYE and do have some pride to play for, but after their season derailed following their loss to Oregon, I don't see much hope in this one. James Franklin would always keep this game within reach, but never quite grab it. Without him and starting QB Drew Allar around, I'm not sure how this Penn State squad doesn't end up losing by a couple of scores. Ohio State's defense is essentially a brick wall reinforced with steel and barbed wire while being surrounded by a 12 foot moat. They rank top in scoring defense with an absurd 5.9 points per game allowed. While they have not faced the most dynamic of offenses yet this season, I don't think Penn State will be able to change that trend. Buckeys suffocate the Nittany Lions 30-10.

#9 Vanderbilt at #20 Texas

     The Commodores travel to Austin to take on Texas, who somehow is still (technically) in the playoff mix. They've got back-to-back overtime wins against Kentucky and Mississippi State, pulling wins out of the most unlikely places. I've got to give them credit, that was an impressive comeback against the Bulldogs last week. However, Vandy is no longer at the bottom of the SEC like the Longhorns' previous two opponents. Diego Pavia should be in the Heisman mix and a big game against Texas's 19th ranked defense could put him on the list. November is where teams truly show who they are, and I think Vandy is one of the best teams in the nation, while Texas has a lot of issues. Arch Manning is going to play after completing  concussion protocol, and the Commodores have a solid defense as well. I expect them to be aggressive and force Arch into inaccurate throws. This is where the losses begin for Texas to end the season and I'm going to enjoy watching this one. Vanderbilt throws down the horns 27-20.

#10 Miami at SMU

     The Hurricanes are playing their first game outside the state of Florida... and it's November. Not sure how they had a schedule built like that, but traveling to Dallas to take on the Show Ponies is no easy task. SMU lost their first ever regular-season ACC game on a last second field goal with Wake Forest last week, and really struggled offensively in that game. Kevin Jennings has not been as dynamic this year, primarily because he's not running. While this may be a scheme strategy by the coaching staff, I find it hard to believe they wanted to fully take away his ability to move out of the pocket with his legs. Last season he had over 350 rushing yards with 5 TDs on the ground and was sacked 14 times through the whole season. Through 8 games this season he's got just 32 rush yards with 1 TD on the ground and has been sacked 13 times. SMU lost a lot of talent from last year's team, and I have faith in Rhett Lashlee to keep this team playing at a high level, but when you've got an athlete like Kevin Jennings, you need to let him play off-script on occasion. Defensively, they love to get pressure (25 Sacks this season), so look for Carson Beck to be under some heat. If SMU can force turnovers early, Beck and crew will be in trouble. For Miami, they need a bit of help to get back into the ACC Title picture, and we all know how they tend to lose in November to ruin their season. They still have road trips to Virginia Tech and Pitt to end the season, and I said VT would be the game that knocks them out of the playoffs. SMU could certainly help with that scenario, but I'm not sure they are built well on the offensive line for this game. I am rooting for the Mustangs, but I'll take Miami (despite my lack of faith in Carson Beck). Hurricanes 31, Mustangs 21.

Navy at North Texas

     The Midshipmen have had the easiest rated schedule in the nation thus far, but November features road trips to North Texas today, Notre Dame next week and Memphis later on after hosting USF. The battle for the Group of 5 bid in the American is about to get very fun as all 4 top teams look to remain in the hunt. These two teams bring completely opposite game plans to the field as Navy looks to run the ball and control clock while North Texas has a high-octane air-raid that set records last week with 608 yards against Charlotte from their Freshman QB. I would expect a lot of points in this game, especially as neither defense can stop the opposing offenses strength. The Mean Green have taken 10 fumbles so far this season with a +7 turnover margin overall, and I think this team has enough firepower to upset the Midshipmen. Sorry Navy, November reveals the real contenders. North Texas wins at home 38-33.

Arizona State at Iowa State

     A rematch of last year's Big XII title game takes place in Ames as the two teams look to get bowl eligible. The Cyclones have lost 3 straight with injuries decimating their defense. Arizona State has lost 2 of its last 3, but did upset Texas Tech in the middle. Iowa State seems to be in a bit of a spiral, but Sam Leavitt is out for the season with a foot injury, putting ex-Husker Jeff Sims in as the starting QB for the rest of the year. I've seen enough of his football to know not to bet on the Sun Devils in this game. Iowa State bounces back at home 27-17.

East Carolina at Temple

     The Pirates and the Owls won't get talked about much on the season, but they are both squarely in the American Conference title race with just one loss in conference each. Owls QB Senior Evan Simon has yet to throw an interception this season, which is a wild stat compared to his 21 passing TDs with another 2 coming on the ground. The Rutgers transfer will be up against a tough test with ECU as the pirates rank 19th in the nation on opponent 3rd down conversions allowed and the Owls rank 70th in converting. The Pirates convert well though ranking 6th with a 53.1% third down conversion rate. They've higher-level played teams tough at every opportunity and I like the Pirates to knock down Temple by a peg leg or two. ECU wins 33-20.

#16 Louisville at Virginia Tech

     The Cardinals are very much in the mix for the ACC Title and potentially playoffs in the third season under Jeff Brohm. Despite the rumors of him being hunted for other coaching jobs, Brohm has this team playing at a very high level, especially QB Miller Moss. The ex-Trojan has found a resurgence in his career, completing 65% of his passes with 10 TDs and 5 picks. He's added another 6 TDs on the ground and this is where they can leverage a strength against the Hokies. Virginia Tech has struggled against dual-threat QBs all season long and while Moss is more of a traditional pocket passer, utilizing his legs in the redzone give Louisville an extra wrinkle. Cardinals win 33-24.

#2 Indiana at Maryland

     The Hoosiers have back-to-back road games with Maryland and Penn State to start November, and this is where I expect even more style points to be put on the board. Indiana was seen as a bit of a Cinderella last season, working their way into the College Football Playoffs, but falling short to Notre Dame in the first round. However, if you take a step back to look at this team, their only 2 losses under Curt Cignetti are the two teams that played for the National Championship last year. Plus, the Hoosiers look even better this season and have been on a war path to prove it, absolutely demolishing teams along the way. Maryland has plenty of spunk and can put up points, we saw that against Nebraska. But its November, not September which means the Hoosiers will win and likely roll. Indiana 45, Maryland 14.

#5 Georgia vs Florida (World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party)

     In the Gators' first matchup without Billy Napier they battle against rival Georgia as the Bulldogs look to continue their path to the College Football Playoffs. It's always tricky playing a team who fired their coach as you never know what the mentality will be. Lots of teams come out playing without restrictions, and that can cause issues for a top 5 team. DJ Lagway has really struggled this season with 9 TDs and 9 interceptions. The Gators have not supported him much either as they rank 103rd in rush offense. Now they face a Georgia defense that is not what it once was, but they still give up fewer than 20 points per game. Florida's defense has been one of the few bright spots this season, and I'm anxious to see how they handle the dual-threat ability of Gunnar Stockton. He's accounted for 17 total touchdown and only been sacked 8 times this season. He does a fabulous job of evading pressure and extending drives. I don't think Florida will be able to score enough if Georgia gets above 20-25 points. Give me the Bulldogs 24-14.

#13 Texas Tech at Kansas State

     The Red Raiders go on the road to a rising K-State team who've won three of their last four games. The Wildcats have been running the ball much better and their defense has been forcing teams off the field on third downs. Texas Tech lost their backup QB to an ACL injury, but they do get Behren Morton back to lead them to the Big XII Championship. They've got a tough slate in November, starting with a spooky trap game at Bill Snyder Stadium. Even with Halloween in the past, don't think things will come easy in Manhattan Kansas. The Wildcats love to play spoiler and if they force turnovers early this could get interesting. Ultimately, I do like the Red Raiders in this game, because of their defense. K-State has struggled against tough defenses this season and Texas Tech ranks 10th in the nation and 1st in the conference for total defense. Guns Up, Wreck 'Em! Texas Tech wins 27-13.

Fresno State at Boise State

     Following the first home shutout an opponent handed the Bulldogs in 45 years, they travel to the Blue Turf to take on the rival Broncos. Boise State is looking to get back into the playoff picture and has done well to put up points this season. They average 35.3 points per game and I don't think Fresno State can keep pace with that. Broncos win 35-20.

#15 Virginia at Cal

     The Cavaliers have been living dangerously the past few weeks, pulling out a few overtime victories and winning their last 3 games by a combined 6 points. Now they travel across the country and take on the sneaky Cal Golden Bears. I've watched the Calgorithm quite a bit this season and honestly I still can't figure them out. They've had blow out losses, strong wins, close wins and last week's wild double-overtime defeat at Virginia Tech. They are the perfect team to upset Virginia and spoil their season. Statistically, there's not much that separates these teams other than Virginia being at +8 for the turnover margin and Cal being at +1. I've been impressed with the Cavaliers always finding a way to win, and there's something to be said about that, but you don't just travel 2,600+ miles and walk away with a win. This is a tough pick but give me the Calgorithim with the upset! I'm hoping for Virginia for more CHAOS with the CFB Playoff Rankings, but Golden Bears are my pick 27-24.

South Carolina at #7 Ole Miss

     Despite the coaching rumors of Lane Kiffin looking to go for another job, the Rebels have a very good looking path to the College Football Playoffs. The offensive line for South Carolina is a disaster, and while I think Ole Miss certainly has some kinks to iron out if they want to compete in the CFB Playoffs, they have more than enough offensive firepower to win this. The Gamecocks did hold down Alabama well and nearly knocked them off, but I don't think LaNorris Sellers has enough on his own to keep this close. Rebels 35, Gamecocks 17.

Arizona at Colorado

     Things for Deion and the Buffs have gotten bad after losing 53-7 against Utah last week. Videos of QB Kaidon Salter looking confused and frustrated by the offensive play calls flooded social media, and now they host a dynamic Arizona squad looking to put up some points. They're averaging 31.6 points per game and QB Noah Fafita is playing very well with over 1,800 yards to go with 17 TDs and 4 picks. He makes very smart decisions with the football and I don't think Colorado will be able to get much pressure on him. Defensively, expect the Wildcats to force some turnovers. They are +5 while Colorado is -3. Give me the Wildcats with a 38-20 victory on the road.

Washington State at Oregon State

     The first of two meetings this month between the lowly members of the 2-PAC takes place in Corvallis, Oregon as the Beavers host the Cougars of Wazzu. The next meeting will take place on November 29th as these teams meet out on the Palouse in Pullman, Washington. Oregon State has just 1 win over FCS opponent Lafayette and fired their coach Trent Bray after the 0-7 start before that. With this team in disarray, I don't have much hope for them in this game. Washington State has been traveling the country, causing headaches for some as they took both Ole Miss and Virginia to the wire while on the road. It'll be interesting to see which team gains the edge as they both rank horribly in turnover margin with Wazzu posting an -8, only the be bested (worsened?) by Oregon State at -9. Despite playing on the road I'll take the Cougars 33-21.

#8 Georgia Tech at NC State

     The Ramblin' Wreck have the inside track to the ACC Championship and College Football Playoffs. November will test the Yellow Jackets though, starting with a road trip to Raleigh with the Wolfpack waiting under the lights. NC State has really struggled with 4 of their last 5 games going the way of their opponent, but that's right when they like to knock someone down. Sophomore RB Hollywood Smothers is a very dynamic back, and if they can get him going early they can control the clock. Smothers is averaging 6.9 yards per carry, but has only 27 touches through the past two games, they need to feed him more. Offensively for Georgia Tech, you know what to expect. They're going to *in Brent Key's voice* RUN THE BALL and I would expect a heavy dose of Haynes King and Jamal Haynes. Still one of the best duos in college football, and Haynes King is another player who I believe should be in the Heisman mix. He's accounted for over 2,000 total yards as the leading passer and rusher with 19 total TDs and just 1 pick. This Georgia Tech team is for real and they handle business on the road 34-17.

#18 Oklahoma at #14 Tennessee

     The Sooners and Vols meet in prime time on Rocky Top as an SEC/Playoff elimination game emerges. Oklahoma QB John Mateer has not looked the best since returning from his hand injury, and the Sooners have not scored more than 26 points in an SEC game this season. Tennessee have not had much on their resume other than losing to Georgia in overtime and Bama on the road. They're looking for a marquee win, and with the dark mode jerseys under the lights on Rocky Top, they could get one over the Sooners. Appalachian State transfer Joey Aguilar has been slinging it for the Vols offense, and I think Josh Heuple still has some bad feelings about the Sooners passing him over for the job. Spooky Rocky Top is not any easy place to win, and I'm not sure OU will have enough offense to keep pace. Vols win 30-23.

#17 Cincinnati at #24 Utah

     The hottest team in the Big XII is Cincinnati and they head west to Salt Lake City for a late night showcase against the Utes. Utah will be donning black jerseys with a fantastic, hand-painted helmet with the Ute Drum & Feathers logo. Looks won't get you the win though, as the Bearcats have not stumbled since falling to my Huskers in Arrowhead to open the season. Brendan Sorsby has 20 TD passes since his lone pick against Nebraska, and 9 of those have gone to A&M transfer Cryrus Allen. The senior has doubled his career TD total through 8 games with the Bearcats and they're going to provide a number of headaches for the Utah defense. They Utes have done well to beat the lower tier teams in the conference, but struggled against the top teams in Texas Tech and BYU. I think Cincy is one of the top teams and they're going to prove it tonight. This will be a fantastic game, so I strongly recommend staying up late for it. Bearcats make a statement on the road and win 31-24.

#23 USC at Nebraska

     Nebraska is hosting USC under the lights at Memorial Stadium, and a special Blackout game is set for HuskerNation. The atmosphere will be electric as always, but crowd factor will be important as the Trojans march in with the nation's best total offense, averaging 530 yards per game. Jayden Miava made his first start for USC against Nebraska last year, and this season he comes in leading the BIG 10 in passing with more than 300 yards per game. He is one of the best QBs in the nation despite not getting much attention and that's due to his decision making ability when the play breaks down. He's only thrown 4 picks this season and been sacked 5 times. Miava evades pressure very well, so Nebraska's secondary will be tested with longer plays and more time needed to cover those receivers. Makai Lemon is their best playmaker down the field and has enough speed to beat everyone off the line. He's racked up 758 yards this season and averages 15.8 yards per catch. This will be the toughest test for the Blackshirts all season. I am looking for turnovers early to try and slow the Trojans down. Offensively, Nebraska needs to establish the run with Emmett Johnson. I know I sound like a broken record, but Johnson is the heart of this attack and needs the ball in his hands. The Huskers did well last week against Northwestern to get the ball out quickly in space, especially to Nyziah Hunter. Both of those players have a chance to be some of the best in recent Husker history, but they need touches. The Husker Oline gets thinner by the day with injuries, so look for quick screens and routes separate of the run game with Johnson. USC struggles on the road under Lincoln Reilly and their rush defense is vulnerable. Matt Rhule and Nebraska needs to make a statement with this game. He's got the contract extension, he wants more money for the roster, you've got to win a ranked game. This is a game I had Nebraska losing when I looked at the schedule pre-season, and I do have genuine concerns about today, but there's no way I'm picking against the Huskers in a night game Blackout that I'm attending. Huskers win a THRILLER against the Trojans 34-31.

Quick Hit Predictions:

Rutgers at Illinois - The Scarlet Knights did well to pull a win out against the Boilermakers, but Illinios isn't the same challenge. The Illini will be looking to get back on track after back-to-back losses and a porous Rutgers defense is just the team to do that on. Illinois 31, Rutgers 21

Duke at Clemson - Both the Blue Devils and Tigers have disappeared in recent weeks as they both went on a BYE. Clemson doesn't typically lose many at home, but they've got 3 losses in Death Valley this season, and now Darian Mensah looks to run all over them. I sold all my Clemson stock, so give me Duke on the road 30-27.

New Mexico at UNLV - The Rebels are coming off a BYE following their loss to Boise while New Mexico comes in on a two game win streak. Pressure from the defensive lines will be my key factor in this game, and the Lobos are far better at it than the Rebels. UNLV has had a lot of close wins, but I'll take New Mexico in an upset 36-30.

Michigan State at Minnesota - Neither team in this game looked good last week as they both were beaten soundly by their rivals. Sparty did have some chances in that game, and there was questionable officiating at times, but the Gophers always play well at home. Minnesota wins 26-24.

UCF at Baylor - The Baylor Bears have been up and down this year, but are coming in off back-to-back losses. Their defense has fallen apart, allowing more than 32 points per game and ranking 119th in the nation. UCF has done well against lower competition, but have not been able to beat any P4 team with a winning record. They've got a tough slate to end the season and I'm perfectly fine with Scott Frost not going to a bowl game, he's used to that. Sic 'Em Bears 34-20.

Purdue at #21 Michigan - Purdue has been randomly feisty in some games and damn near nonexistent on the season in many others. Apart from the 30 points they put up on Notre Dame the train has not been on the tracks, and I fear the rebuild there may take some time. Michigan runs away with is 34-7.

Wake Forest at Flordia State - The Demon Deacons are coming off a walk-off field goal win against SMU, and now travel to Tallahassee to take on Florida State. The Seminoles are on a 4 game skid, but did have a BYE week to get things reset, and each of those 4 have been a one-score loss. Wake is on a 3 game win streak after their close overtime loss to Georgia Tech. Ride the hot hand and let's go with Wake Forest in a road upset. Demon Deacons 25, Florida State 21.

Thanks for reading my Week 10 Predictions and enjoy a fantastic day of College Football! 

GO BIG *BLACK*

#CFBKnowItAll

Alex Fernando